Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 17:38:54 GMT -5
Or watch them and make a call on their ability to play goal.
I love me some stats, but you and I both know stats lie, especially over the short term. Reimer is obviously a talented goalie to make the NHL, but he gives up an unreal amount of second and third chances. I believe the old adage is that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.
|
|
|
|
Post by International Hockey Club on Jun 23, 2013 17:50:54 GMT -5
Or watch them and make a call on their ability to play goal. I love me some stats, but you and I both know stats lie, especially over the short term. Reimer is obviously a talented goalie to make the NHL, but he gives up an unreal amount of second and third chances. I believe the old adage is that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics. I'd still take Reimer over Pavelec lol. Pav needs to get his shit together FAST - his athleticism is superb but his positioning sucks. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 18:34:14 GMT -5
No doubt. I couldn't believe that extension Pavelec got before the lockout. Bad business.
|
|
|
|
Post by International Hockey Club on Jun 23, 2013 19:29:51 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2013 20:22:55 GMT -5
It's an interesting article, but again, the author has misguided the reader with statistics. They divided the draft into unequally sized segments and used those to create percentages that at first glance would suggest you be better off taking a goalie in picks 100 and up. A more accurate stat (as far as i'm concerned) would be the percentage of drafted goalies in whatever random ranges that made that SV%.
I certainly wouldn't argue the point that top level goalies are taken from a much more disperse draft position than top level forwards, but for the author to imply goalies are drafted arbitrarily is dishonest at best.
I guess another way to consider it would be, using the numbers the author presented, about a quarter of goalies that meet the criteria were token in round one. How many goalies get selected in round one every year?
|
|
|
|
Post by International Hockey Club on Jun 23, 2013 20:29:24 GMT -5
It's an interesting article, but again, the author has misguided the reader with statistics. They divided the draft into unequally sized segments and used those to create percentages that at first glance would suggest you be better off taking a goalie in picks 100 and up. A more accurate stat (as far as i'm concerned) would be the percentage of drafted goalies in whatever random ranges that made that SV%. I certainly wouldn't argue the point that top level goalies are taken from a much more disperse draft position than top level forwards, but for the author to imply goalies are drafted arbitrarily is dishonest at best. I guess another way to consider it would be, using the numbers the author presented, about a quarter of goalies that meet the criteria were token in round one. How many goalies get selected in round one every year? These are all the first round goalies since 1998: Patrick DesRochers Mathieu Chouinard Brian Finley Maxime Ouellet Ari Ahonen Rick DiPietro Brent Krahn Pascal Leclaire Dan Blackburn Adam Munro Kari Lehtonen Cam Ward Hannu Toivonen Marc Andre Fleury Al Montoya Devan Dubnyk Cory Schneider Marek Schwarz Carey Price Tuukka Rask Bernier Riku Helenius Leland Irving Semyon Varlamov Chet Pickard Thomas McCollum Jack Campbell Mark Visentin Andrey Vasilevskiy Malcolm Subban |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 12:37:02 GMT -5
So just to expand on that a little more. Taking the undrafted players out of the mix, since there is an unknowable number of undrafted goalies, the percentage fo goalies that had seasons with SV% above .910 for the remaining three categories they set up would be...
1-30: 32.0%
31-100: 21.8%
100+: 36.6%
From 1998 to 2007 (covers what you had earlier, but leaves of the last few years where noone has developed into that 0.910 SV% category), the number of goalies (percentage of total drafted goalies) drafted in those categories are...
1-30: 24 (8.6%)
31-100: 69 (24.6%)
100+: 187 (66.8%)
If there was no benefit to drafting goalies early, as the author implies, those percentages would be equal, but as we can see, first rounders outperform randomness by a 4 to 1 ratio, the middle group is about random and the 100+ group is about a 2 to 3 ratio. Which is what you would expect. I understand there is inherent risk in drafting goalies early, as D and F are more likely to succeed, but there is such an anti-goalie-drafting movement on the message boards right now that they try putting stuff like that article together to justify their position. It's riskier, but you're still more likely to get an NHL caliber goalie.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 12:39:02 GMT -5
Also, here's the second rounders for 1998 to 2007.
Phillippe Sauve
Jomar Cruz
Alex Auld
Simon Lajuenesse
Jan Lasak
Ilya Bryzgalov
Mathieu Chouinard
Dan Ellis
Andrei Medvedev
Peter Budaj
Josh Harding
David LeNeveu
Maxime Daigneault
Corey Crawford
Jimmy Howard
David Shantz
Justin Peters
Tyler Plante
Jeff Frazee
Ondrej Pavelec
Pier-Olivier Pelletier
Michal Neuvirth
Jhonas Enroth
Joel Gistedt
Antoine Lafleur
Trevor Cann
Jeremy Smith
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2013 12:48:17 GMT -5
Top 5 (IMO) for every round (combined 8 & 9 into one since they stopped those during the lockout. [total drafted in that round, over that period]. Note: when you start looking at Stalock as a good goalie, things have gone downhill.
1st: Ward, Rask, Fleury, Schneider, Price [24]
2nd: Crawford, Howard, Bryzgalov, Harding, Neuvirth [27]
3rd: Quick, Anderson, Anderson the second time he was drafted, Greiss, Bishop [37]
4th: Emery, Reimer, Bachman, Sabourin, Stalock [31]
5th: Miller, Smith, Raycroft, Hovinen, Dekanich [48]
6th: Leighton, Nittymaki, McElhinney, York, Ramo [38]
7th: Lundqvist, Huet, Khudobin, Taylor, Norrena [38]
8th & 9th: Rinne, Halek, Elliott, Gerber, Charron [21 & 16]
|
|
|
|
Post by International Hockey Club on Jun 24, 2013 13:21:47 GMT -5
Stalock is a spaz. Just sayin'
|
|
|
|
Post by Nova Scotia Titans on Jun 24, 2013 22:09:51 GMT -5
"Dave Bolland you beautiful beautiful man."
Pretty much sums up how all Blackhawks fans feel right now. Congrats to Chicago on their 2nd Stanley Cup in 4 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Nova Scotia Titans on Jun 24, 2013 22:12:41 GMT -5
Patrick Kane wins the Conn Smythe Trophy.
|
|
|
|
Post by International Hockey Club on Jun 24, 2013 22:16:14 GMT -5
A stunning but thrilling end to one of the great Stanley Cup Finals of our time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Nova Scotia Titans on Jun 24, 2013 22:28:22 GMT -5
Assorted thoughts of mine now that Chicago has won the Stanley Cup:
"Ray Emery finally gets a Cup, after just missing out with Ottawa in 2007, and almost having his career ended due to avascular necrosis, the same disease that ended the career of the legendary two-sport athlete Bo Jackson. Good for him!"
"What the fuck, Pierre Gauthier's gonna be lifting the Stanley Cup!"
"Ray Emery is gonna be snorting the entire Red Sox 3rd base line tonight"
|
|
|
|
Post by Nova Scotia Titans on Jun 24, 2013 22:34:02 GMT -5
|
|
